Professor Peter Congdon
Research Professor in Quantitative Geography and Health Statistics
School of Geography
Queen Mary, University of London
Mile End Road, London E1 4NS
Phone: 020 7882 2778
Fax: 020 7882 7479
Email: p.congdon@qmul.ac.uk
Personal web page
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Research interests:
Spatial Epidemiology, statistical modelling, population health
Peter Congdon is a quantitative geographer with particular interests in spatial health inequalities, population health, spatial epidemiology and related statistical modelling issues (especially Bayesian methods). He is affiliated to the QMUL Centre for Statistics and since 2001 he has been a Research Professor in the Geography Department. Peter's previous appointments included Principal Demographic Researcher at the London Research Centre, Research Fellow at Birkbeck College, University of London and Social Statistician at the Population Studies Group, Greater London Council. He is the author of a range of articles and books, including the recent Wiley publications ‘Bayesian Models for Categorical Data’ and a second edition of ‘Bayesian Statistical Modelling’.
Peter has been involved in several ESRC funded projects at Queen Mary including
- Relationship between Adolescent Health and the Neighbourhood (RELACHS study)
- Resilience and Capability Impacts on health and Education
- Influences of Geographic Setting on Social Differences in Health;
- Locality Level Mortality and Socio-economic Change in Britain since 1920.
He has also been involved in collaborations with the Institute of Community Health Sciences, including a Kings Fund project into indicators for elderly care provision, and a Department of Health Study of the public health workforce. Recent projects include an analysis of psychiatric need indicators for the New York Office of Mental Health.
Publications:
Congdon, P (2011) A Latent Variable Model for Suicide Risk in relation to Social Capital and Socio-economic Status. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology (forthcoming)
Congdon P, Lloyd C (2011) A spatial random effects model for interzone flows: commuting in Northern Ireland, Journal of Applied Statistics (forthcoming)
Congdon P (2011) Spatial path models with multiple indicators and multiple causes: mental health in US Counties, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2, 103–116.
Congdon, P (2011) Spatial health factors with selection among multiple causes: lung cancer in US counties, Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods (forthcoming)
Congdon P (2011) The spatial pattern of suicide in the US in relation to deprivation, fragmentation and rurality. Urban Studies, 48, 2101–2122.
Congdon, P (2011) Explaining the spatial pattern of suicide and self-harm rates: a case study of east and south east England, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. DOI 10.1007/s12061-009-9038-4 4(1): 23–43
Congdon P (2010) Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. CRC Press/Chapman & Hall (May, 2010)
Congdon P, Lloyd P (2010) Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence, International Journal of Public Health, 56, 15: 24, DOI: 10.1007/s00038-010-0143-6
Congdon, P (2010) Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 7(1), 164–177, doi: 10.3390/ijerph7010164
Congdon, P (2010) A Multilevel Model for Comorbid Outcomes: Obesity and Diabetes in the US , Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 7(2), 333-352; doi:10.3390/ijerph7020333
Congdon, P (2010) Structural Equation Models for Area Health Outcomes with Model Selection, J Appl Stat, 38: 745–767.
Congdon, P (2010) Random effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology, J. Roy Stat Soc Series A,173(4): 755–774
Congdon, P (2010) A Multiple Indicator, Multiple Cause Method for Representing Social Capital with an Application to Psychological Distress. Journal of Geographical Systems, 12, 1:23 doi: 10.1007/s10109-009-0097-5
Congdon, P (2010) Assessing Differential Area Mortality Trends via Bayesian Random Effects. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 39, 2205–2230
Congdon, P, Lloyd P (2010) Estimating Small Area Diabetes Prevalence in the US using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Journal of Data Science, 8(2) 235–252
Congdon P (2010) A Spatial Structural Equation Model with an Application to Area Health Needs. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 80(4): 401–412
LeSage J, Banerjee S, Fischer M, Congdon P (2009) Spatial statistics: methods, models & computation, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 53: 2781–2785. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.11.001
Congdon P (2009) A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates, International Journal of Health Geographics http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/6
Congdon P (2009) Life expectancies for small areas: a Bayesian random effects methodology, International Statistical Review, 77, 222–240
Congdon P (2009) Adaptive Autoregressive Priors for Area and Time Structured Mortality Data. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139, 2870–2884
Curtis S, Congdon P, Almog M, Ellerman R (2009) County variation in use of inpatient and ambulatory psychiatric care in New York State 1999–2001: need and supply influences in a structural model, Health and Place, 15: 568–577
Congdon P (2008) The Need for Psychiatric Care in England: A Spatial Factor Methodology. Journal of Geographical Systems 10: 217–239
Congdon P (2008) A spatially adaptive conditional autoregressive prior for area health data, Statistical Methodology, 5: 552-563
Congdon P (2008) A bivariate frailty model for events with a permanent survivor fraction and non-monotonic hazards; with an application to age at first maternity, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52, 4346-4356
Fagg, J, Curtis S, Clark C, Congdon, P, Stansfeld S (2008) Neighbourhood perceptions among inner city adolescents: relationships with their individual characteristics and with independently assessed neighbourhood conditions. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 28: 128-142
Congdon, P (2008) Modelling the impact of socioeconomic structure on spatial health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53: 3047-3056 doi:10.1016/j.csda.2007.10.021
Congdon, P (2008) Estimating the prevalence of coronary heart disease in local areas: integrating information from health surveys and area mortality, Health & Place, 14: 59-75
Congdon, P (2008) A spatial structural equation model for health outcomes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138: 2090-2105
Congdon, P (2008) Indirect area estimates of disease prevalence: Bayesian evidence synthesis with an application to CHD. Journal of Data Science, 6(1), 15-32
Congdon, P (2008) Indirect area estimates of disease prevalence: Bayesian evidence synthesis with an application to CHD. Journal of Data Science, 6: 15-32
Congdon, P (2007) A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000. International Journal of Health Geographics, 6:16doi:10.1186/1476-072X-6-16
Congdon, P (2007) Mixtures of spatial and unstructured effects for spatially discontinuous health outcomes. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 3197-3212
Congdon P, Almog M, Curtis S, Ellerman R (2007) A Spatial Structural Equation Modelling Framework for Health Count Responses. Statistics in Medicine 26 (29): 5267-5284.
Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian Statistics, in Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment Wiley.
Congdon, P (2006) Contributor to Capability and Resilience: Beating the Odds, M. Bartley (ed). ESRC.
Ghosh, S, Das, K, Congdon, P (2007) Analysis of marginally specified semi-nonparametric models for clustered binary data. Statistica Neerlandica, 61 (3), 292-306.
Congdon, P (2007) Model Weights for Model Choice and Averaging, Statistical Methodology 4 (2): 143–157. Posterior Model Probabilities, Toy Examples [pdf, 61kb] Toy Example Codes [txt, 3kb]
Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian modelling strategies for spatially varying regression coefficients: A multivariate perspective for multiple outcomes. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51, 2586-2601
Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian modeling of migration age structures. In The Estimation of International Migration in Europe: Issues, Models and Assessment, Raymer, J, Willekens, F (eds). Wiley
Congdon, P (2006) Modelling multiple hospital outcomes: the impact of small area and primary care practice variation. International Journal of Health Geographics 2006, 5: 50 (16 November 2006)
Congdon, P (2006) Modelling hospital activity: accounting for small area and primary care practice variation, Advances and Applications in Statistics, 6 (3), 335–351.
Congdon, P (2006) A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy, Demographic Research, 14, 157-178
Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, 2nd edition. Wiley
Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Congdon, P, Stansfeld, S (2006) Psychological distress among adolescents, and its relationship to individual, family and area characteristics; evidence from East London, UK. Social Science & Medicine, 63, 636-48
Congdon, P (2006) Estimating diabetes prevalence by small area in England. J Public Health, 28, 71-81
Congdon, P (2006) A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area and time. Biometrics, 61, 269-278
Congdon, P (2006) Forecasting Regional Demand for Acute Health Care, Chapter 10 in Delay Management in Health Care Systems, Ed Randolph Hall, Springer
Congdon, P (2006) A spatio-temporal forecasting approach for health indicators, Journal of Data Science, 4 (4): 399-412
Congdon, P (2006) Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysis outcome and referral variations, Journal of Health & Place 12: 465-78
Congdon, P (2006) A model for nonparametric spatially varying regression effects, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 50, 422-445
Congdon, P (2006) Bayesian Model Choice based on Monte Carlo Estimates of Posterior Model Probabilities, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 50, 346-357
P. Congdon (2005) Bayesian Model Comparison via Parallel Model Output, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76, 149-165
Congdon, P, Clarke, T (2005) Assessing intervention effects in a community based trial to reduce self harm: a methodological case study, Journal of Public Health, 119, 1011-5
Congdon, P, Southall, H (2005) Trends in inequality in infant mortality in the north of England, 1921-1973, and their association with urban and social structure, J Roy Stat Soc Series A, 168, 679-700
Chapman J, Congdon P, Shaw S, Carter Y (2005) The geographical distribution of specialists in public health in the United Kingdom: Is capacity related to need? Public Health, 119, 639-646
Chapman J, Shaw S, Congdon P, Carter Y, Abbott S, Petchey R.(2005) Specialist public health capacity in the UK: working in the new primary care organisations. Public Health, 119, 22-31
P. Congdon (2005) Bayesian Methods for Categorical Data, Wiley
P. Congdon (2005) Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian Statistics, In Encyclopedia of Statistics in the Behavioural Sciences, B Everitt, D Howell (eds), Wiley
P.Congdon (2004) Bayesian Predictive Model Comparison via Parallel Sampling, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 48, 735-753
P.Congdon (2004) Contextual Effects: index construction and technique, International Journal of Epidemiology 33, 741-742
Fagg, J, Curtis, S, Stansfeld, S, Congdon, P (2004) Neighbourhood influences on adolesecent health in East London. In Sagan, I. & Czepczinski, M. (eds.), Featuring the Quality of Urban Life in Contemporary Cities of Eastern and Western Europe, Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Gdansk-Poznan, 117-124
Campos, R, Congdon, P, Curtis, S, Gregory, I, Jones, I, R. Southall, H (2004) Locality level mortality and socioeconomic change in Britain since 1920: first steps towards an analysis of infant mortality variation, In P. Boyle, S.E. Curtis, A.C. Gatrell, E. Graham and E. Moore (eds.) The Geography of Health Inequalities in the Developed World, Aldershot: Ashgate p.
Congdon, P.(2004) Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality, J Applied Statistics, 31, 603-622
Congdon, P., Southall, H. (2004) Small area variations in infant mortality in England and Wales in the inter-war period and their link with socio-economic factors, Journal of Health and Place, 10, 363-382
Congdon, P. (2004) A multivariate model for spatio-temporal health outcomes with an application to suicide mortality, Geographical Analysis 36, 234-258
Curtis, S., Southall, H., Congdon, P., Dodgeon, B. (2003) Analysis of the Longitudinal Study sample in England using new data on area of residence in childhood. Social Science and Medicine, 58, 57-74
P.Congdon (2003) Modelling Spatially Varying Impacts of SocioEconomic Predictors on Mortality Outcomes, Journal of Geographical Systems, 5, 161-184
P.Congdon (2003) Applied Bayesian Modelling, John Wiley
P.Congdon (2002) A life table approach to small area health need profiling, Statistical Modelling, 2, 1-26
P.Congdon (2002) A model for mental health needs and resourcing in small geographic areas: a multivariate spatial perspective, Geographical Analysis, 34, 2, 168-186
P.Congdon (2001) The development of gravity models for hospital patient flows under system change: a Bayesian modelling approach, Health Care Management Science, 4, 289-304
P. Congdon, R. Campos, S. Curtis, H. Southall, I. Gregory, I. Jones (2001) Quantifying and explaining changes in geographical inequality of infant mortality in England and Wales since the 1890s, International Journal of Population Geography, 7, 35-51
P. Congdon (2001) Health Status and Healthy Life Measures for Population Health Need Assessment: Modelling Variability and Uncertainty, Journal of Health and Place, 7(1):13-25.
R. Fowler, P. Congdon and S. Hamilton (2001) Assessing health status and outcomes in older people attending a geriatric day hospital, Public Health, 114, 440-44
P. Congdon (2001), Bayesian models for suicide monitoring, European J. of Population, 15, 3,1-34
P. Congdon (2001) Bayesian Statistical Modelling, John Wiley
P.Congdon (2001) Predicting adverse infant health outcomes using routine screening variables:modelling the impact of interdependent risk factors, J. Applied Statistics, 28, 183-197
P. Congdon (2000) A Bayesian Approach to Prediction using the Gravity Model, with an Application to Patient Flow Modelling, Geographical Analysis, 32 (2)
P. Congdon, (1999) Primary Care Needs Assessment and Resourcing: Complementary Practice and Geographic Perspectives, J. Health and Place, 5, 1, 59-82
P Congdon and N Best (1999) Small area variation in hospital admission rates: adjusting for referral and provider variation, J. Roy Stat Soc, Series C
P. Congdon, A. Smith and C. Dean (1998) Assessing psychiatric morbidity from a community register: methods for Bayesian adjustment, Urban Studies, 35 (12), 2323-2352
P. Congdon (1998) A multi-level model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation, The Statistician, 47 (1), 159-182
P. Congdon (1997) Multilevel and clustering analysis of health outcomes in small areas, European J. of Population, 13, 305-338
P.Congdon (1997) Realignment of suicide differentials in London: an examination of trends in the 1980s and 1990s, The London Journal, 22, 160-174
P.Congdon (1997) Bayesian models for the spatial structure of rare health outcomes: a study of suicide using the BUGS program, Journal of Health and Place, 3, 229-247
P.Congdon, S.Shouls, S.Curtis (1997) A multi-level perspective on small area health and mortality: a case study of England and Wales, International Journal of Population Geography, 3, 243-263.
S. Hamilton, P. Congdon and R. Fowler (1996) Measuring outcomes of care in a day hospital setting, Elderly Care, 8, 14-17
P. Congdon (1996) General linear gravity models for the impact of casualty unit closures, Urban Studies, 33, 1707-1728
S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Modelling inequality in reported long term illness:combining individual and area characteristics, J. Epid. Comm. Health, 50, 366-376
S.Shouls, P.Congdon, S.Curtis (1996) Geographic variation in health: the development of a relevant area typology for SAR districts, Journal of Health and Place, 2, 139-155
P.Congdon (1996) The incidence of suicide and parasuicide: a small area study, Urban Studies, 33, 137-158
P.Congdon (1996) The epidemiology of suicide in London, J. Royal. Stat.Soc, Ser A, 159, 515-533
Professional activities and outreach:
- Editorial Board (Spatial Statistics), Springer Handbook of Regional Science, 2013
- Biometrics, Associate Editor;
- Refereeing grant applications/project reviewing on behalf of ESRC, NHS Service Delivery and Organisation R&D Programme, Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research, Arts and Humanities Research Board; Research Grants Council (Hong Kong); Health Research Council of New Zealand; ESRC-NWO Bilateral Research Scheme, Chief Scientist Office (Edinburgh) HSR Training Scheme.
- Referee Panel ESRC/MRC Joint Studentship and Post-Doctoral Fellowship Scheme;
- Chartered Statistician;
- Elected Member, International Statistical Institute
- Guest Editor, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (Special Issue, Spatial Statistics)
- Editorial Board (Computational Statistics & Data Analysis)
- External Reviewer NORFACE(Research Funding Agency Cooperation in Europe)